Anonymous user
Portland State University 2019 Homelessness report: Difference between revisions
Portland State University 2019 Homelessness report (view source)
Revision as of 21:40, 17 September 2019
, 4 years agono edit summary
imported>Tmccormick No edit summary |
imported>Tmccormick No edit summary |
||
| (18 intermediate revisions by the same user not shown) | |||
Line 1:
[[File:PSU-HRAC-study-2019-cover.jpg|thumb|right|500px|cover of report]][originally part of article [[Right_to_housing|Right to housing]] . See also [http://www.yimby.wiki/wiki/Reading_List#Homelessness Reading List: Homelessness section]].
Portland State University Homelessness Research & Action Collaborative (HRAC) on August 21, 2019 issued a report, "'''[https://www.pdx.edu/syndication/sites/www.pdx.edu.syndication/files/HRAC-NERC%20Final%20Draft%20JG%207AM8_20_2019.pdf Governance, Costs, and Revenue Raising to Address and Prevent Homelessness in the Portland Tri-County Region]'''." [Zapata et al 2019].
"HRAC's goal is to help reduce homelessness and its negative impacts on individuals, families and communities. The Collaborative brings together the expertise and skills of each of Portland State University's colleges and schools, and collaborates with people experiencing homelessness, advocates, service providers, city and county policymakers and other stakeholders." <br/> <br/> HRAC Faculty & Staff:
*Marisa Zapata. Center Director - Urban Studies & Planning
*Greg Townley, Director of Research. Psychology Department
*Jacen Greene, School of Business
*Lisa Hawash, School of Social Work
*Todd Ferry, School of Architecture
*Maude Hines, English Department
*Sergio Palleroni, School Architecture
*Paula Carder, OHSU-PSU School of Public Health<br/>
== Summary / analysis ==
=== Introduction: ===
<blockquote>''"This report takes a comprehensive look at the scale of homelessness and housing insecurity experienced in the Portland tri-county area. Our goal in producing this report is to help community members understand the scope and scale of the challenges we face when addressing homelessness and housing insecurity. We examine governance options, provide cost estimates for providing housing, supports, and services, and present revenue-raising options for our local governments to address homelessness and housing insecurity."''</blockquote>
=== Expanded definition & scope of 'homelessness' and precariously/unsuitably housed ===
<blockquote>''"Many of the available counts of those experiencing homelessness use a narrow definition. We believe this leaves people behind. For example, the official Point-in-Time counts do not include those living doubled up, those sometimes described as the hidden homeless or precariously housed. This vulnerable population is sleeping on friends’ couches or cramming in unsafe numbers into bedrooms."''</blockquote>
=== Population and cost estimates ===
<blockquote>''"38,000 people experienced homelessness in the tri-county area in 2017...The cost to house and support this population ranges from $2.6 billion to $4.1 billion over ten years based on a range of options presented in the cost section of this report."''</blockquote>
for reference, the Metro and Portland housing bonds passed in the last two years total approximately $911 million for affordable housing.
<blockquote>''"As many as 107,000 households faced housing insecurity or were at risk of homelessness in 2017 in the tri-county area due to low incomes and paying more than 30% of their income on housing costs....Providing rent assistance for all of these households would help resolve housing insecurity and reduce the risk of becoming homeless. We estimated costs to create such a program, using a range of rents and addressing households that earn 0–80% of the median family income (MFI) for their household size. To help severely cost-burdened households ''[defined by HUD as paying more than 50 percent of one's income on rent. -YIMBYwiki] ''over ten years would cost $8.7 billion–$16.6 billion. That’s about $870 million–$1.66 billion per year, or $10,000–$20,000 per household per year. These numbers do not account for what is already being spent in the tri-county area to relieve the cost burden for households in need."''</blockquote>
Source of cost estimates:
<blockquote>''"The costs of developing housing units, including new construction and rehabilitation, mainly follow the vetted assumptions from the Corporation for Supportive Housing (2018 and 2019) reports (based on “actual costs reported by PHB and approved by stakeholder advisory groups”). The only adjustment comes from the Metro Affordable Housing Bond Program Work Plan (2019) and Regional Housing Bond Financial Modeling Summary Memorandum (2018). These sources peg the average construction cost of housing units at $215,000 (a weighted average for all housing unit sizes), and the cost of rehabilitation of existing units at $190,000 (including $150,000 building acquisition cost and $40,000 rehabilitation cost, all in 2018 dollars). CSH (2018) estimates that annual operating and maintenance costs run between $6,000 and $8,000 per unit."''</blockquote>
=== Related comments from study authors ===
Zapata, Marisa. "[https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/10-opinion/435793-346252-my-view-homelessness-isnt-the-crisis-you-think-it-is My View: Homelessness isn't the crisis you think it is. [Homelessness is a warning that our systems are failing. How we rebuild is up to us]]." Portland Tribune, Opinion, August 15, 2019
<blockquote>''"the one true solution: stable, quality, affordable and supportive housing." ''<br/> <br/> ''"To truly stop homelessness, we need to fix the long-term systemic issues that lead to it in the first place. We need universal rights to safe and quality housing and universal health care so no one is forced to choose between buying insulin and making rent. We need major criminal justice reform that does not sentence people to life on the streets and an overhaul of how we support those with addiction and major mental illnesses so recovery is possible for everyone. We need stronger protections for historically marginalized communities so your ZIP code, gender identity or skin color doesn't dictate your future."''</blockquote>
{{#widget:Tweet
|id=1166039336644751366
|conversation=none
}}
{{#widget:Tweet
|id=1163862980187975680
|conversation=none
}}
{{#widget:Tweet
|id=1167105482646904832
|conversation=none
}}
== Right to Housing aspect ==
This report does not explicitly articulate a "[[Right_to_housing|Right to Housing]]" concept, but it notably uses broad definitions and makes wide estimates of how many people in the region experience homelessness in some form, or are considered vulnerable to falling into homelessness. By proposing government assistance, in the form of housing provision and rent assistance, for these entire populations, it in effect approaches an idea of "[[Right_to_housing|Right_to_housing]]."
Line 32 ⟶ 62:
== Public responses to report ==
{{#widget:Tweet
Line 41 ⟶ 71:
== Questions / critique ==
=== Why use static, not dynamic figure for homeless population? ===
''What are the implications of basing the cost estimates on a static figure for current homeless population, rather than current population plus observed or estimated typical rate of 'inflow' to homelessness? ''
Line 55 ⟶ 85:
=== Why use static, not dynamic figure for housing-vulnerable population? ===
''Likewise, how valid is it use a static figure for housing-vulnerable (107k people?) who might receive rental assistance? Could we make some simple/reasonable prediction of rate of inflow into this group, and include that as a baseline, rather than baselining on zero inflow? ''
Line 61 ⟶ 91:
=== What about induced behavior, ie how proposed policies would change behaviors? ===
As Ellen & O'Flaherty [2010] note in the Introduction to ''How To House the Homeless [2010]'', policies alter the environments they address:
Line 67 ⟶ 97:
=== How accurately/efficiently could those most at risk of homelessness be targetted? ===
Ellen & O'Flaherty [2010b] notes:
<blockquote>''"Olsen argues that we should focus housing assistance on the poorest households, because these households are more likely to become homeless. However, predicting in advance who will become homeless is extremely difficult (again, O’Flaherty gives a theoretical reason for this empirical regularity), and targeting more precisely is therefore very difficult.'' ''"Third, moral hazard inevitably comes with better targeting. You can target services precisely if you are willing to accept a great deal of moral hazard; you can reduce moral hazard a great deal if you are willing to have poor targeting. But you cannot have both precise targeting and low moral hazard. If only people who are actually homeless receive great services, too many people will be homeless. If everyone receives services, only a tiny percentage of the benefit will inure to people who would otherwise be homeless."''</blockquote>
The PSU study asserts that homelessness could generally be prevented by providing full housing assistance (e.g. to let households pay no more than 30% of income on rent) to all cost-burdened, low-income households. But what data or evidence do we have to evaluate what portion of those who fall into homelessness come from these various levels of of cost-burdened households? Or that the rental assistance would prevent their shift into homelessness? For example, a major precursor to female and family homelessness is domestic violence, and this is not necessarily addressed by the head of household receiving rental assistance.
Perhaps it would be more effective to develop better models of identifying and targeting the households most likely to shift into homelessness, and focusing assistance pre-emptively there? (cf Destination: Home program doing that in Santa Clara County). Or, to emphasive funding rapid rehousing for those who do become homeless?
=== How much might widely-expanded rental assistance raise rents generally? ===
''What are the implications and credibility of assuming / modeling that large-scale rent assistance, given the Portland area's supply constraints or supply inelasticity.''<br/> <br/> A familiar idea in housing research is that expanded rental benefits in supply-inelastic markets may largely cause overall increased rents and the subsidy to be in effect captured by landlords. In a recent interview on ''Vox, ''Jennie Schuetz of the Brookings Institute argues this would apply to Greater Portland:
<blockquote>''"To help low-income families, we should make housing assistance an entitlement — like SNAP or Medicaid — that’s available to every family that meets the income eligibility standards.<br/> We probably shouldn’t tie housing assistance to local housing costs, because high local housing costs reflect housing scarcity, which means extra subsidy will be captured by landlords. Instead, we should tackle the shortage.<br/> In California, the Northeast Corridor, Greater Seattle, Greater Portland, and, to a lesser extent, Greater Denver and many college towns, there is simply not enough housing being built to meet the demand to live in these areas, creating problems that no amount of subsidy or rent control can really solve."''</blockquote>
The PSU report acknoweldges this issue on p.78:
<blockquote>''"Another significant element not addressed by this report is the impact that providing housing assistance at a previously unprecedented level would have on the housing market. Obviously, a massive influx of government assistance into the rental market would have dynamic implications for pricing and supply. It is not possible at this stage to determine those impacts, and this report therefore takes a static approach to market analysis and assumes no change, rather than assuming an uncertain level of change."''</blockquote>
=== How much might new publicly funded/leased housing crowd out other housing development/use? ===
''What are the implications and credibility of assuming / modeling that lthat large-scale new public-funded housing development wouldn't crowd out housing that would otherwise occur, creating a price-raising factor?''
Line 79 ⟶ 121:
=== Why add new housing only by current conventional building or leasing? ===
''Why would or should we assume that housing creation to address homelessness at large scale should be done all with current conventional housing forms? ''<br/> <br/> The report states:
Line 87 ⟶ 129:
For example, Portland-based Meyer Memorial Trust recently conducted a mult-year Cost Efficiencies program, identifying and funding a variety of alternative approaches to create regulated affordable housing. (see Meyer Memorial Trust [2015], and Parkhurst [2018]). Some of the projects highlighted deliver or aim at much lower unit costs than conventional development.
More broadly, in the on-going web/book project "[http://bit.ly/village-buildings Village Buildings: patterns for affordable housing from Oregon],"
*''3. Accessory Dwellings - self-, startup-, or public-financed.''
Line 94 ⟶ 136:
*''7. Interim/redeployable housing: e.g. PAD Initiative. ''<br/>
=== Don't policies driving overall housing cost levels need to be part of the policy advocated? ===
''To what degree do the estimates of housing needs and remedy costs follow from general area housing prices, which are strongly affected by economic climate and general rate/type of housing creation? If this factor is large, then it seems policy recommendations concerning this general housing creation would be an integral part of this report/project's scope. ''
Line 102 ⟶ 144:
=== Summary of issues ===
[from [https://www.facebook.com/groups/236403716698010/permalink/943702379301470/?comment_id=943808209290887 comment in Facebook group PDX YIMBY, 6 Sept 2019], by McCormick]
1. The [https://www.pdx.edu/syndication/sites/www.pdx.edu.syndication/files/HRAC-NERC%20Final%20Draft%20JG%207AM8_20_2019.pdf PSU HRAC 2019 study] presents estimated costs to "address" homelessness, but chooses not to include ongoing '''inflow of people into homelessness or housing insecurity''' -- which in many places is known to be consistently large, and (e.g. in Bay Area greater than the rate at which the unhoused are being housed). <br/> The study also sets aside the '''cost-raising effect of widely expanding rent assistance in a supply-constrained market''', and that of new subsidized housing crowding out other housing. Together, these assumptions likely mean the report greatly understates the scope of need, possibly to the point where the proposed remedies would nowhere near achieve the goal.
2. Other key assumptions, such as that a low-income rental benefit would generally stop people falling into homelessness, seem to be asserted with quite little support. Providing full rent assistance to all cost-burdened low-income renters may be a good goal, but it may also be a very costly and poorly targetted way to prevent homelessness. Also, due to cost-increasing effects on overall rent levels, it may be a fairly ineffective way even to address housing affordability.
3. The report has a major, essentially unstated '''assumption, that new housing created to address homelessness should be done in the same way and at same costs as current''' general market or tax-credit-financed housing. Particularly given the reasons noted above that report may far ''understate'' need, it seems to me a surprising assumption, that a hugely expanded program of public spending would not consider alternate approaches to achieve its goal. <br/> Also, Oregon and Portland are quite notable for their history and broad community of people exploring alternative housing, such as the Meyer Memorial Trust's recent multi-year [https://mmt.org/news/meyer-hosts-cost-efficiency-summit-january Cost Efficiencies] study and pilot funding program. It would seem a great missed opportunity not to bring all this knowledge and built precedent to bear on the problem.
In general, I fear repeating the typical pattern of housing assistance in many times & places: programs/ funding that ''help a portion of the needy, at high aspiration and cost, often to traditional middle or upper-middle-class norms''; but leave out many more people, and perhaps don't even keep up with worsening need. Alternatively, I'd suggest, we might think of "[[Right_to_housing|'''right to housing''']]" approaches, that create effective minimum standards that must be extended to all -- and that compel the [country, state, city..] to find how to achieve it for all.
== See also ==
*[http://www.yimby.wiki/wiki/Reading_List#Homelessness Reading List: Homelessness section]<br/>
Line 109 ⟶ 167:
----
== References ==
*A Home for Everyone. (2013). [http://ahomeforeveryone.net/the-plan A Home for Everyone: A united community plan to end homelessness for Portland/Multnomah County]. Retrieved from [http://ahomeforeveryone.net/the-plan http://ahomeforeveryone.net/the-plan].<br/>
*Citizens Commission on Homelessness. (2004). [http://www.mentalhealthportland.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FULL-ACTION-PLAN.pdf Home again: A 10-year plan to end homelessness in Portland and Multnomah County] [PDF file]. Retrieved from [http://www.mentalhealthportland.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FULL-ACTION-PLAN.pdf http://www.mentalhealthportland.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/10/FULL-ACTION-PLAN.pdf].<br/>
*Citizens Crime Commission of Portland. "[http://pdxccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Homelessness-in-Portland-Report-5.4.19.pdf Homelessness in Portland: A Meta-analysis and Recommendations for Success]." May 2019. [http://pdxccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Homelessness-in-Portland-Report-5.4.19.pdf http://pdxccc.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/Homelessness-in-Portland-Report-5.4.19.pdf].<br/> Excerpts From ''"''Executive Summary":
**Portland’s homelessness crisis is the predictable result of fifty years of policy on housing, economics and crime, and of decisions on how and where we treat our mentally ill.
**The City and County, through the Joint Office, should continue their programmatic focus on homelessness prevention through housing retention, additional shelter resources and growing the stock of permanent supportive housing
**Recommendation No. 4: Contract with the recently formed Portland State University Homelessness Research & Action Center to assess current outcomes measures and “own” an ongoing, transparent data set for use in establishing cost-effectiveness.
**Organized villages of the homeless have proven to be a cost-effective interim solution to the crisis of homelessness.<br/> Recommendation No. 6: Encourage the expansion of the houseless village concept as a largely private sector and faith community endeavor. Fees should be waived, permits should be fast-tracked, and public utilities should be provided.
**Housing is healthcare. The Oregon Health Authority (OHA), through CCO 2.0, must make significant investments into behavioral health. OHA should pursue a Medicaid waiver to support PSH.<br/>
*Ellen, Ingrid Gould, and Brendan O'Flaherty, Editors [2010] ''How to House the Homeless'' (Russell Sage Foundation, 2010).<br/> [https://www.russellsage.org/publications/how-to-house-homeless Summary, Table of Contents, from publisher]. [https://www.russellsage.org/sites/default/files/Ellen_OFlaherty_Chap1.pdf Chapter 1: Introduction, by Ingrid Gould Ellen and Brendan O’Flaherty].<br/>
*Ellen, Ingrid Gould, and Brendan O'Flaherty [2010b]. "Chapter 1: Introduction," in Ellen & 0'Flaherty, ''How to House the Homeless. '' <br/>
*McCormick, Tim. "[
*McCann, Fiona, and Rebecca Jacobson, Kelly Clarke, Marty Patail, Margaret Seiler, and Ramona DeNies. "[https://www.pdxmonthly.com/articles/2019/4/23/what-don-t-we-understand-about-homelessness-in-portland What Don’t We Understand About Homelessness in Portland?]" Portland Monthly, May 2019. [https://www.pdxmonthly.com/articles/2019/4/23/what-don-t-we-understand-about-homelessness-in-portland https://www.pdxmonthly.com/articles/2019/4/23/what-don-t-we-understand-about-homelessness-in-portland].<br/>
*McCann, Fiona. "[https://www.pdxmonthly.com/articles/2019/6/25/we-know-how-to-solve-homelessness-in-portland-what-s-stopping-us We Know How to Solve Homelessness in Portland. What’s Stopping Us?]" ''Portland Monthly'', July 2019. [https://www.pdxmonthly.com/articles/2019/6/25/we-know-how-to-solve-homelessness-in-portland-what-s-stopping-us. https://www.pdxmonthly.com/articles/2019/6/25/we-know-how-to-solve-homelessness-in-portland-what-s-stopping-us. ]<br/>
*McLam, Lesley, with Corey Elia. [https://www.kboo.org/media/75397-05-tripp-p-1sep2019 TRIPP-P episode 5, discussion with Dr Marisa Zapata]. KBOO, 1 Sept 2019. [https://www.kboo.org/media/75397-05-tripp-p-1sep2019. https://www.kboo.org/media/75397-05-tripp-p-1sep2019. ]<br/>
*Meyer Memorial Trust [2015]. "[https://mmt.org/sites/default/files/inline-files/Cost-Efficiencies10_1_15.pdf Meyer Cost Efficiencies Work Group – Final Report]." October 2015.<br/>
*Newell, Annette. "[https://kboo.fm/media/75408-interview-director-homelessness-research-and-action-collaborative-psu Interview with the Director of Homelessness Research and Action Collaborative at PSU]." KBOO, Thu, 09/05/2019 - 5:45pm to 6:00pm. [https://kboo.fm/media/75408-interview-director-homelessness-research-and-action-collaborative-psu https://kboo.fm/media/75408-interview-director-homelessness-research-and-action-collaborative-psu].<br/>
*Parkhurst, Michael [2018]. "[https://mmt.org/news/meyer-hosts-cost-efficiency-summit-january Meyer hosts Cost Efficiency Summit in January]." Meyer Memorial Trust, January 11, 2018. [https://mmt.org/news/meyer-hosts-cost-efficiency-summit-january https://mmt.org/news/meyer-hosts-cost-efficiency-summit-january].<br/>
*Sand, Kaia. "[https://news.streetroots.org/2019/08/23/confront-housing-crisis-it-time-think-big To confront the housing crisis, it is time to think big]." Street Roots (Portland, OR), 23 Aug 2019. [https://news.streetroots.org/2019/08/23/confront-housing-crisis-it-time-think-big. https://news.streetroots.org/2019/08/23/confront-housing-crisis-it-time-think-big. ]<br/>
*Templeton, Amelia. "[https://www.opb.org/news/article/portland-oregon-homeless-children-shelter-families/ How Portland Tried, And Failed, To Provide A Bed For All Its Homeless Children]." ''Oregon Public Broadcasting, ''March 13, 2018. [https://www.opb.org/news/article/portland-oregon-homeless-children-shelter-families/ https://www.opb.org/news/article/portland-oregon-homeless-children-shelter-families/].<br/>
*Totten, Michael J. "[https://www.city-journal.org/html/portland’s-homeless-challenge-14185.html Portland’s Homeless Challenge: The Pacific Northwest city, long a magnet for street people, is experimenting with unusual reforms]." Winter 2016. [https://www.city-journal.org/html/portland’s-homeless-challenge-14185.html https://www.city-journal.org/html/portland%E2%80%99s-homeless-challenge-14185.html].<br/>
*Yglesias, Matthew. "[https://www.vox.com/2019/5/17/18628267/jenny-schuetz-weeds-interview An expert’s 7 principles for solving America’s housing crisis]." [interview with Jennie Schuetz of Brookings Institute]. ''Vox'', May 17, 2019. [https://www.vox.com/2019/5/17/18628267/jenny-schuetz-weeds-interview https://www.vox.com/2019/5/17/18628267/jenny-schuetz-weeds-interview].<br/>
*Zapata, Marisa. "[https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/10-opinion/435793-346252-my-view-homelessness-isnt-the-crisis-you-think-it-is My View: Homelessness isn't the crisis you think it is. [Homelessness is a warning that our systems are failing. How we rebuild is up to us]]." ''Portland Tribune'', Opinion, August 15, 2019. [https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/10-opinion/435793-346252-my-view-homelessness-isnt-the-crisis-you-think-it-is. https://pamplinmedia.com/pt/10-opinion/435793-346252-my-view-homelessness-isnt-the-crisis-you-think-it-is. ]<br/> '' ''
*Zapata MA,* Liu J,** Everett L, Hulseman P, Potiowsky T, & Willingham E. [2019]. [https://www.pdx.edu/syndication/sites/www.pdx.edu.syndication/files/HRAC-NERC%20Final%20Draft%20JG%207AM8_20_2019.pdf Governance, Costs, and Revenue Raising to Address and Prevent Homelessness in the Portland Tri-County Region]. Portland State University. <br/> [https://www.pdx.edu/syndication/sites/www.pdx.edu.syndication/files/HRAC-NERC%20Final%20Draft%20JG%207AM8_20_2019.pdf https://www.pdx.edu/syndication/sites/www.pdx.edu.syndication/files/HRAC-NERC%20Final%20Draft%20JG%207AM8_20_2019.pdf].<br/> *First author & **second author. All other authors listed in alphabetical order. For questions, please contact: Marisa A. Zapata (mazapata@pdx.edu).
| |||